Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1646
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 18:52:43

ACUS11 KWNS 201852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201851=20
MIZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522...

Valid 201851Z - 202015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds and isolated large hail is
spreading east-southeastward into southeastern Lower Michigan this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDTX shows a
northeast-southwest-oriented QLCS tracking east-southeastward at
around 40 kt across southeastern Lower Michigan -- with additional
supercell development immediately ahead of the line. Continued
diurnal destabilization across the pre-convective environment
(characterized by increasingly agitated HCRs) will support the
maintenance of the line given around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented
oblique to the gust front (per KDTX VWP). Severe gusts up to 70 mph
are the main concern, though isolated large hail is possible with
the leading supercells and where breaks in the convective line
occur. Additionally, VWP data shows modest low-level hodograph
curvature (around 200 m2/s2 0-2 km SRH) which could support embedded
rotating updrafts and a non-zero tornado risk.

...Weinman.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5CjVMxIj8tXR_BIFgQsUG2-wPZBoUHYNIAl0cj_4dzDULtmK2e3tTr5z-yJvOYpUWqeNb3Qns=
7gvYeKT8dXWmV2k7Ts$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42338480 42588447 43078386 43368364 43398359 43428322
            43428276 43268237 42858234 42378268 41838326 41738364
            41758414 41848459 41968502 42078513 42338480=20


=3D =3D =3D
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