Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1645
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 18:47:13

ACUS11 KWNS 201847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201846=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Middle/eastern TN into northern AL...north
GA...Upstate SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...

Valid 201846Z - 202015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread southeastward with
time. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A bowing storm cluster with a history of damaging wind
is moving southeastward east of Nashville, with recent vigorous
development noted southeast of this cluster into southern middle and
eastern TN, and increasing cumulus noted along the southwest flank.
The background environment remains supportive of organized
convection near and to the warm side of an outflow-reinforced
surface boundary, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear.=20

Isolated hail and maybe a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
stronger discrete cell, but the damaging winds are expected to
remain the primary threat. The ongoing bowing segment may continue
to move southeastward near the surface boundary, with additional
damaging-wind producing clusters possible as new development matures
this afternoon. As a result, downstream watch issuance may be needed
across parts of northern AL/GA and potentially into upstate SC.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7_jOcepH7kdOpY-GRi6nl2wKnlujiTSGwLtlJ3TFtrSRfK3O1jyeXGtzK-alZFcllF6IiZ5EM=
2IFFrAghB3Z6MAz9GI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33988425 34518663 34878783 35468782 35838718 36318611
            35098436 34718303 34548213 34148166 33778193 33488223
            33988425=20


=3D =3D =3D
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