Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1640
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 14:26:09

ACUS11 KWNS 201426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201425=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-201600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern CO...southwestern NE...and
far northwestern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201425Z - 201600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts could continue with an organized
cluster of thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...KGLD/KFTG radar data shows an organized line segment
tracking east-northeastward at around 30-35 kt over northeastern CO
this morning. A 55-kt gust was recently measured in Akron CO with
this activity. While surface observations and the LBF observed
sounding suggest lingering nocturnal boundary-layer static
stability, forced ascent associated with an upstream mesoscale low
and a corridor of upper 60s dewpoints are likely aiding in
near-surface based inflow given steep midlevel lapse rates.

Around 30 kt of midlevel flow (per regional VWP), the favorably rich
low-level moisture, and ascent preceding the mesoscale low, may
favor continued organization and the potential for locally severe
gusts during the next hour or two. A watch is not currently expected
given the localized nature of the threat.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_QV5DWpmGr_nX8kGWBQaFrVkJK6PX_UQo4rPwgiqv9fUpj9surzVOkWuK_FQ8l4JIBANios-Z=
vN1Y5kcJ-DDDSLRr9I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39600201 39600259 39700286 39920302 40160307 40350306
            40540282 40640255 40710213 40710153 40630107 40490084
            40230073 39860078 39720095 39600201=20


=3D =3D =3D
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