Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 10:12:31

AWUS01 KWNH 201012
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-201510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0769
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
611 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Eastern KS through Central and Southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201010Z - 201510Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be advancing east
across portions of eastern KS and central to southern MO this
morning. Areas of cell-training and very heavy rainfall rates may
foster some areas of flash flooding

DISCUSSION...The latest dual-pol radar in conjunction with GOES-16
IR satellite imagery shows a west to east oriented axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms expanding in coverage across portions of
eastern KS and advancing downstream through areas of west-central
to southwest MO.

This activity is forming within a pool of moderate to strong
instability (MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg) and near a
quasi-stationary front. Convergence along this boundary coupled
with proximity of divergent flow aloft around the south side of a
strengthening upper-level jet digging into the Midwest should tend
to favor convective sustenance going through the morning hours and
especially with the favorable thermodynamic environment that is
expected to be in place.

Rainfall rates are expected to reach as high as 2 inches/hour with
the stronger cells this morning, and some localized totals of 3 to
4 inches will be possible where these cells tend to train over the
same area, and this is generally supported by the 06Z HREF
guidance. Areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7EPhH9T2Bbhvjp8Zj8No5QQvlPfAXox4bfta8uqMh3lzvY7rGwcT84cSnvDpuEkOVyv5=
jds2w7QQVM3FlP9F8hzjoi4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38429522 38379297 38019113 37589027 36949057=20
            36829178 36999348 37199486 37609618 38129627=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.