Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 07:30:07

ACUS03 KWNS 200730
SWODY3
SPC AC 200729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DEEP SOUTH...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday across portions of the Deep South.  Damaging gusts are the
primary hazard with the stronger storms.

....Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the
Interior West while a broad, large-scale mid-level trough resides
over the eastern CONUS.  Surface high pressure will extend from OK
east through the MS Valley and into the OH Valley.  A residual
frontal zone will be draped west to east from TX east through the
north Gulf Coast states.

....Deep South...
The aforementioned boundary and sea-breeze front will be a focus for
diurnal storm development on Saturday.  A belt of moderate westerly
mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale
mid-level trough.  Rich low-level moisture (dewpoints into the 70s
deg F) and strong heating will result in a strongly unstable airmass
by early-mid afternoon.  Scattered to numerous storms are possible.
Forecast soundings show PW around 2 inches which will favor strong
to severe gusts with the more intense wet microbursts.  This
activity will likely dissipate by mid evening.

....NE...
Appreciably strong northwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a
boundary layer during the afternoon featuring steep low- to
mid-level lapse rates.  Although moisture quality will be relatively
limited, isolated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon near
a weak wind shift/surface trough.  A few strong gusts are possible
with the stronger storms.  If confidence increases or is maintained
for another outlook cycle, low-severe probabilities may be
introduced.

...Smith.. 07/20/2023

$$

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