Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 01:02:03

ACUS01 KWNS 200101
SWODY1
SPC AC 200100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and hail will continue this evening into tonight across portions of
the Upper Midwest and across parts of the central Plains.

....Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

The Slight risk has been bifurcated, with a relative minimum in
severe potential expected across IA into northeast NE where the
Slight risk has been removed. This area remains situated between two
stronger forcing regimes, and convective coverage is expected to
remain low, warranting only Marginal risk probabilities. To the
northeast, large hail and damaging gusts will continue across parts
of eastern MN into northwest WI the next few hours where WW 518 and
520 remain in effect.

Further south across Kansas and vicinity, large hail and damaging
wind potential will persist into the overnight hours/early Thursday
morning. See mesoscale discussion 1637. The Slight risk has been
expanded eastward across KS. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to
shift east from western KS into central/eastern KS along an
instability gradient and baroclinic zone. Initially large hail is
possible with semi-discrete convection. Some upscale growth into a
bowing cluster may occur, and spread a swath of damaging gusts
eastward through tonight.

....Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop once again overnight in a warm
advection regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts may accompany this
activity, similar to yesterday.

....NV/UT...

High-based convection may continue to produce sporadic strong gusts
another couple of hours this evening before the severe threat
diminishes tonight.

....Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

Severe probabilities have been removed, as most convection has moved
offshore and severe potential will remain low the remainder of the
period.

...Leitman.. 07/20/2023

$$

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