Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1637
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 00:42:32

ACUS11 KWNS 200042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200042=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-200445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...far eastern Colorado...much of western into
south-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

Valid 200042Z - 200445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms persist from eastern Colorado into northwest
Kansas, and may expand southeastward across the remainder of western
and central/south-central Kansas this evening. Additional watches
are possible later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several areas of storms from northeast NM into
northwest KS are beginning to converge into western KS where the air
mass remains moist and unstable. The axis of instability with MLCAPE
over 3000 J/kg extends across the southern half of KS, also just
south of a subtle east-west surface convergence zone.

Localized gusts to 60 kt have already been measured near Colby, and
several cells also contain severe hail. With time, outflows will
likely link over western KS, with potential for damaging winds to
develop down the instability axis. The 00Z sounding from DDC does
show a somewhat shallow moist layer, but capping should be
surmountable given a strong enough cold pool. In addition, cooler
temperatures around 700 mb exist over central and northern KS, which
may support a severe threat eventually there despite cooler surface
temperatures.

...Jewell.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-9zXfO4ce5ayNki6ktmVZj1H4BniGb6iW2ZDa2RmuI8LeTzEPexxyZFMTG3EfCVZuYfIPkNM6=
PILJ9VzvAcvGq7_Bx0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37010039 36870183 36790242 37120248 37510272 37820316
            38250249 38660224 39030202 39230154 39520111 39850068
            39930036 39880002 39849960 39779877 39569855 39209842
            38749811 38379775 38069723 37899709 37479719 37199749
            37039825 37039893 37010039=20


=3D =3D =3D
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