Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 00:23:23

AWUS01 KWNH 200023
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-200530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0767
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern & South-central NV...Northern &
Central UT...Ext Southren ID...Ext Southwest WY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200020Z - 200530Z

SUMMARY...Risk for isolated thunderstorms along/downstream of
compact shortwave continues through late evening into early
overnight period.   Scattered thunderstorms along tail-end of
southern trough, across East-central NV and WSW UT also remains a
concern for spots of 1-1.5" totals and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES WV suite loop continues to show a well
developed/compact shortwave exiting northeast NV with excellent
northern outflow channel supporting stronger thunderstorms along
northeast divergence channel into S ID.  Near the core of the
wave, strong mid-level rear inflow jet has enhanced convergence
along the axis of enhanced 700-500mb moisture axis across E NV
through N UT.  CIRA LPW values still remain well above average
with .5-.6" in that layer also supported with 95th percentile up
to .25" in the 500-300mb layer as well.  While low levels are a
tad drier with more inverted V soundings, the Tdd are not very
high and sfc Tds are in the low to mid 50s, supporting reduced
evaporative loss.  GOES-Visible/EIR shows strong cumiliform
cooling tops with overshoots to -55C with this strongest mid-level
moisture convergence.  Updraft cores of 1"/hr are likely with spot
totals of 1-1.75" still likely before nightfall. As such, spots of
flash flooding remain possible across NE NV/N UT and adj portions
of ID/SW WY.

Further south, the trailing edge of the shortwave continues to
support enhanced low level convergence along an axis from
Esmeralda/S Mineral county to N Lincoln through Millard county.=20
Moisture is a bit less here, but convergence is a tad stronger so
flux may support similar .75"/hr rates.  However, the orientation
of scattered convection along the line is generally parallel to
the deeper layer steering to support possible repeating rounds
across this area.  As such, isolated spots of 1-1.5" totals may
induce flash flooding across this axis as well.

Activity should reduce with loss of solar heating, though ongoing
clusters with stronger outflow could support sufficient
convergence to maintain banding elements through NE UT/SW WY into
the early overnight period.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8b91usiA5FFhMGiv1xAdQ-MBp36PV9ZFOxMC9xmnI1EZcJNAUfWT6ibI66qPLqAEpncl=
fAoY4fFIPw55MiTmvRpDbqk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...GJT...LKN...PIH...REV...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42571234 42481109 42291019 41790968 40870931=20
            39720952 38671020 38531240 37751454 37191693=20
            37341753 37711840 38231901 38821889 38851831=20
            38541744 38461653 38891470 39601376 40541397=20
            40851498 41211547 41811547 42251485 42481386=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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