Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 23:54:53 AWUS01 KWNH 192354 FFGMPD OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-200500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 754 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Adj Northwest Oklahoma... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 192355Z - 200500Z SUMMARY...Colliding boundaries and strong up/downdrafts sport very quick burst of 2+". Resultant complex(s) will propagate into deeper moisture and increase rainfall efficiency with potential spots of short-term training and widely scattered small scale flash flooding incidents.=20 DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop depicts a strong/cold cluster of thunderstorms across NE NM advancing northward while the southward sagging effective 'frontal' boundary/surface pressure trof is dropping southeast across central CO to NW KS with less vigorous but still solid convective cells. A ribbon of enhanced easterly flow low level flow has pooled increased moisture and instability back across SE CO with 1.5-1.7" total PWats and building 2000-3000 J/kg of weakly capped CAPE. As the surface boundaries collide, broad scale slab ascent is just starting with numerous overshooting tops expanding across SE CO...which will zip up from west to east over the next hour or so. Given depth of moisture and strength of pulse moisture flux, hourly rain rates of 2-2.5" are likely with even a spot 3" across the area. As such, this area is more likely to see a few incidences of flash flooding over the next few hours, given lower FFG.=20=20 As the evening unfolds, LLJ will strengthen out of the east and southeast and should allow for increasing forward propagation of the merged complex out of SE CO, as well as expanding convective clusters along the effective frontal boundary in NW KS. Cells will have increased moisture flux (15-20kts) with 1.75+" TPW to allow for 1.5-2"/hr rates, but it will be the occasional cluster mergers or short-term training that may spur localized flash flooding given cell motions may limit overall totals. Those mergers/short-term training moments across west-central and southwest KS may result in spots of 2-3" in 3hrs which is in the realm of the 3hr FFG values, though just in the range, so any flash flooding incidents may be localized and/or low-end incidents. As such, flash flooding across SW KS is less likely than further west in CO and would be considered possible. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!655vmSz4hvBkOLo1qab4EwGypD7mMwR4gCxL_wYiJGhBhG2F92xvjtibdnWkCtkB0quw= YX8UyWpjgPZUcYtddWhq570$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40010068 39859953 39259893 37459862 36749928=20 36660168 36760247 37020300 37260396 37830434=20 38280389 38510313 39180263 39870181=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .