Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1633
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 20:49:16

ACUS11 KWNS 192048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192048=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192048Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts are
possible this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints from
the mid 60s to near 70 have resulted in moderate destabilization
(1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. There has
been some increase in storm coverage/cumulus depth across the region
over the past hour, likely in response to a weak shortwave crossing
the Appalachians now. Some enhanced mid-level flow accompanies this
shortwave (sampled around 30 to 35 knots at 4-5 km per CCX VWP) and
may provide enough shear for some storm organization. Warm mid-level
temperatures and corresponding weak mid-level lapse rates, combined
with the meager shear, should limit the hail threat. However,
isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest storm
cores.

...Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5kR8ixFntaZGa8n04c1xAmHfqz0w4XcOxR_HZfi_rTZOQ9Ktc261ARvgRtFqu0JNYP_OILz5g=
8ImjtMOhf7n4ZUDr_I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40867800 41217646 40827481 40077446 39327520 38367534
            37967608 37727733 37757821 38077866 40867800=20


=3D =3D =3D
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