Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1632
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 20:21:59

ACUS11 KWNS 192021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192021=20
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nevada and western UT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192021Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through the
afternoon. Strong to severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms.
A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A vorticity maximum embedded in a belt of moderate
west-southwesterly midlevel flow (evident in water vapor imagery)
will continue east-northeastward across eastern Nevada and western
UT this afternoon into early evening. As DCVA preceding this feature
overspreads a diurnally destabilizing air mass, thunderstorm
coverage will gradually increase during the next few hours as
boundary-layer inhibition continues to erode. While modest
deep-layer shear (20-30 kt of effective shear) may limit convective
organization to an extent, at least loosely organized updrafts
embedded in larger clusters of eastward-moving storms will be
possible. This, combined with the diurnally deepening boundary layer
and steepening low-level lapse rates (characterized by inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles) will support strong to severe outflow winds
-- especially with any loosely organized clusters.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6B36V67ETZfJiwgQt7CDzoiSSjflFP-60mvEUj6u0_9Q8DDTqvIzlPe41MUzkoDljtD5-IoUz=
wwydT3CnjiEwT_cWuQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   41841428 41991358 41991292 41891222 41501168 41011154
            40591148 39261186 38641232 38241280 38191335 38191395
            38251503 38481545 38661570 39001577 39571572 40011559
            40991505 41481472 41841428=20


=3D =3D =3D
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