Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1631
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 20:18:02

ACUS11 KWNS 192017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192017=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-192145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota and far west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192017Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for supercells capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts may materialize this afternoon/evening. A watch
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Continued heating across southern Minnesota has
gradually weakened convective inhibition this afternoon. Over the
last 30 minutes, visible satellite shows deeper cumulus starting to
develop, likely in response to ascent from the approaching mid-level
shortwave trough. This increased ascent, combined with 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE and expectation of some additional heating, could provide
ample buoyancy/lift for thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2
hours. However, dewpoints have also started to decrease across
western Minnesota in response to deeper mixing which could be a
limiting factor to greater storm coverage. Strong mid-level flow (60
knots per FSD VWP) will provide ample shear for supercells, some
capable of 2+ inch hail. Additionally, an ongoing left-moving
supercell across east-central South Dakota may continue east across
southern Minnesota given moderate instability and a long/straight
hodograph. The combination of this potential and the potential for
additional scattered storm development may necessitate a severe
thunderstorm watch or watch extension later this afternoon.

...Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9piY74BCuBIixmu9D8hlkzukVgByjahyZbzsL-YUIySt8ASA3gim8uynrus3SD2mej-_s0kZ-=
uzPeZd-tdHJ5q5Wc-g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43589480 43659542 44099632 44759641 45669632 46099591
            46339464 46019241 44669123 43809128 43589253 43629373
            43589480=20


=3D =3D =3D
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