Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 20:00:30 ACUS01 KWNS 192000 SWODY1 SPC AC 191958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, and Mid Atlantic regions. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from the Ozarks into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and parts of the Great Basin. ....20Z Update... The Slight Risk has been expanded across parts of eastern NC based on recent convective trends. See Mesoscale Discussion 1628 for more details on the near-term severe threat for this area. Have trimmed the Marginal Risk across parts of the TN and lower OH Valley. There still appears to be some potential for strong to locally severe thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning over portions of this region as convection spreads eastward in a modest low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper trough. Small adjustments have also been made to the Marginal/Slight Risk areas across the mid MO Valley into eastern SD/western MN based on observational and short-term model trends. ...Gleason.. 07/19/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023/ ....MN/WI... An upper low is tracking southeastward out of southern Manitoba into ND. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary extends from northwest MN southward to near MSP. Westerly low-level winds and strong heating west of the boundary, combined with backed flow to the east and more persistent low-level moisture, will lead to an axis of thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings show low-level and deep-layer shear profiles favorable for rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds. A tornado or two is also possible. These storms will drift eastward into the MN Arrowhead region and northern WI during the evening. ....Central Plains... A broad upper ridge is positioned from the Four Corners region eastward across the southeast states today, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. Rich low-level moisture is present across much of the central Plains, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s from eastern CO into central NE. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the western edge of the greater moisture by mid-afternoon along an axis from north-central NE into northwest KS and eastern CO. These storms will spread southeastward through the evening, posing a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Activity is expected to build as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles during the evening. ....KS/MO... Multiple 12z CAM solutions suggest that a cluster of storms over northern KS will grow upscale and become very organized late tonight, resulting in a corridor of severe wind potential from eastern KS across central into southeast MO. At this point, the confidence in this scenario remains low but will be monitored. ....VA/NC... A remnant MCV is evident in satellite/radar imagery over north-central NC. The associated cluster of thunderstorms will track northeastward toward the coast this afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1627 for further details. ....UT... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over western NV is associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Weak but sufficient forcing ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development later today over eastern NV and western UT. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, but with pockets of CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and with 25-30 knots of westerly mid-level flow. This will be sufficient to pose a risk of locally severe wind gusts in the stronger cells. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .