Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1628
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 19:01:00

ACUS11 KWNS 191900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191900=20
NCZ000-192000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 191900Z - 192000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Tornado watch 517 has been expanded southward to cover this threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across
east-central North Carolina along a remnant outflow boundary. The
boundary layer has warmed into the 90s ahead of this activity with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This yields 2000 to 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, shear is somewhat lacking in the region as the RAX
VWP shows effective shear has dropped to around 15 knots in the wake
of the compact MCV. Therefore, storm organization remains somewhat
questionable. However, despite questions about storm organization,
some severe weather threat will persist given the favorable
thermodynamic environment. In addition, some lingering stronger flow
may continue across east-central North Carolina with perhaps a
lingering tornado threat, particularly where more backed surface
flow remains amid a moist boundary layer.=20

Given this new development south of the initial outline of Tornado
Watch 517, a southward expansion has been coordinated with WFO MHX.

...Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Yxs-eJ7GFg60L2xTgKZpAHkCSJ_rQx1LGIbOgdbWsUXVsr9RaAE0qHmjwhypUhTZ9KLlCNg5=
VFybkj5kcX5o0Iwf5s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35237850 36027724 36047598 35807547 35577538 35267545
            35177554 34647628 34587693 34427742 35237850=20


=3D =3D =3D
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