Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 18:49:15

AWUS01 KWNH 191849
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0764
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...East-central to Northeast NV...West-central to
Northwest UT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191850Z - 200030Z

SUMMARY...Enhanced moisture and favorable mid-level forcing should
allow for increased thunderstorm vigor and rainfall potential.=20
Incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a compact a nicely shaped
comma of mid-level clouds and embedded weak mid-level Cbs across
north-central NV.  Arched cirrus with transverse banding elements
strongly suggests favorable diffluent anticylonically curved
outflow jet streak.  Compact shortwave is providing solid DPVA
ascent along and southeast across east-central and northeast NV
bleeding into W UT with time.  Accompanying the wave is an
enhanced 700-500mb moisture channel ranging from .45 to .6" in the
CIRA LPW that starts to concentrate into a confluent narrower
ribbon of .5-.6" moisture across N UT into NW CO.  VWP suggest
solid 15-20kt 700mb confluent flow along this deformation/shear
axis along the southern edge of the stronger 5-300mb jet entrance
region across WY and N CO.=20

Surface moisture is also fairly anomalous in the mid to upper 50F
and as heating progresses temps are starting to reach the mid-80s
increasing instability in this favorable region. GOES Visible loop
shows mountain circulation convection is already starting in
earnest along the eastern ridges of NV including the Quinn Canyon,
White Pine, Hotcreek and starting across the Schell Creek Ranges.=20
Stronger mid-level cells also continue to cool/expand along near
the shortwave intersection with the deeper layer deformation zone
across the northeast.  Given stronger forcing and total PWat
moisture to .75-1" (generally 2.5 standard deviation from normal).
  As such, localized storm coverage is likely to expand with
deeper cells having capability for 1.5"/hr rates.  HREF
probability of 1"/hr rate up to 30% and some 2"/3hr up to 20%
provide some confidence of this isolated threat.  These higher
rates, particularly off the higher terrain into the valleys pose
possible localized flash flooding concerns through the late
afternoon hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_T17ZhEWQxPHZ1OYrCqwOJyk08Q_LIxGfi8C3MDpsv5FYeBORnDoaBs7Tw4RaXa9e1j-=
-R_h6YK00f6evQFz71Xh5Zk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41931366 41521262 40471218 39401262 38531341=20
            37991435 37491590 37861688 39141673 40061668=20
            40861704 41481635 41841541=20

=3D =3D =3D
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