Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 17:32:30 ACUS02 KWNS 191732 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday across parts of the central/southern High Plains, Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, and parts of the Carolinas. The greatest concentration of severe wind may occur over parts of southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ....Central/Southern High Plains... The western portion of a cold front will likely stall and become draped across eastern CO during the day. Easterly low-level flow will again favor seasonably moist conditions across the central High Plains with thunderstorm development expected by midday into the early afternoon along/near the CO Front Range. Convection should move east of the higher terrain during the early/mid afternoon and gradually intensify. Various model guidance shows elongated hodographs which will be favorable for organized thunderstorms, including supercells early in the convective life cycle. Large hail should be the main severe threat initially. Increasing coverage late Thursday afternoon/evening will likely favor a cluster/MCS to develop and potentially track east-southeastward near the boundary across southeastern CO/southwestern KS and perhaps into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening, with a wind threat perhaps continuing into the late night near the OK/KS border. Given increased confidence in this MCS scenario occurring, have added greater severe wind probabilities and an Enhanced Risk. ....Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Although details remain uncertain, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of KY/TN Thursday morning in association with enhanced mid-level westerly flow moving across this area. Still, a moist low-level airmass will destabilize where cloud breaks occur ahead of a southeastward-moving front. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley ahead of the front show potential for organized storms given adequate instability and deep-layer shear. The more intense convection will be capable of scattered severe/damaging winds, in addition to the possibility of large hail and a tornado with any supercells. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably be greatest over the OH Valley in association with the eastward-moving upper trough, with weaker low-level convergence potentially limiting coverage over mid the MS Valley into the Ozarks. Have expanded the Slight Risk across parts of Lower MI and into northwestern PA and vicinity, where latest guidance shows sufficient destabilization should occur to support surface-based thunderstorms and increased potential for severe hail/damaging winds. ....Carolinas... Strong heating of a moist airmass ahead of a lead disturbance will promote moderate to strong instability by early Thursday afternoon. Modest ascent should aid in the development of scattered storms by mid to late afternoon. Damaging gusts with the more organized multicells should be the primary concern, especially if a belt of stronger 2-4 km flow (30-40+ kt) is realized. This activity will likely weaken by Thursday evening. ...Gleason.. 07/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .