Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1627
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 15:41:03

ACUS11 KWNS 191540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191540=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-191715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...East/northeast North Carolina and far southeast
Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191540Z - 191715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through early
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster near the center of a MCV has
gradually increased in intensity across central North Carolina over
the last hour. Downstream, temperatures have warmed into the low to
mid 80s with mid to upper 70s dewpoints. This has yielded 1500 to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE with most inhibition eroded. Some additional
heating is likely which could lead to further destabilization. This
will result in strengthening of ongoing convection and the potential
for additional thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the MCV.=20


The KRAX VWP shows 55 to 60 knots of flow around 4km which far
exceeds any forecast guidance. This strong low-mid level flow should
provide ample shear for organized convection and rotating updrafts.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. A
slight risk will be added in this region at the 1630Z Day 1
Convective Outlook and a watch may be needed by early afternoon.

...Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5nV8u1n6ipq3YTOl8p-EJi3cgqMnIamlnbaw_WKyw--DYc35EztGfqww8BZkK0oJptWIGLcvR=
bvfAyTJSECluIFjyx4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35627541 35567567 35477631 35457693 35497783 35827826
            36047854 36937778 37347682 37317626 37157569 36387565
            35887543 35627541=20


=3D =3D =3D
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