Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 07:34:03 ACUS03 KWNS 190733 SWODY3 SPC AC 190732 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Deep South westward into eastern Oklahoma on Friday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the central High Plains. ....Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will be over the Northeast and southeastern Canada on Friday, while west-northwest flow extends from the central Rockies into the Southeast to the north of a flattened mid-level ridge. A residual frontal zone will sag southward into parts of the Deep South and be a focus for diurnal storms. ....Central High Plains... Model guidance indicates strong heating and orographic ascent will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing Friday from eastern WY southward into the Raton Mesa vicinity. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and strengthening mid to high-level northwesterly flow with height may act to organize a few of the stronger cores. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be the primary risks. This activity will likely wane during the evening as it moves further southeastward into the High Plains. ....Deep South into eastern OK... Showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of OK during the morning associated with residual Thursday night activity emanating from the High Plains prior to the start of the Day 3 period. An isolated risk for a severe gust may accompany these storms during the morning. Additional storms are possible farther east as strong heating amidst a seasonably moist airmass becomes strongly unstable by early afternoon (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg). Some enhancement of westerly flow in the low to mid levels may aid in storm intensity during the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard before these storms dissipate during the evening. ....Mid-Atlantic states... Located to the south of stronger forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough, appreciable surface heating and dewpoints near 70 deg F may enable isolated storms to develop during the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be limited, but a couple of the stronger cores could yield a localized wind-damage threat for a few hours. ...Smith.. 07/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .