Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 06:00:33 ACUS02 KWNS 190600 SWODY2 SPC AC 190559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY...AND CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday for the central High Plains, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Carolinas. ....Synopsis... Model guidance continues to show a flattened mid-level anticyclone across the southern part of the CONUS. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic states. A belt of moderate west-northwest flow will extend from the central Rockies through the MS Valley and into the Carolinas. A cold front will push east across the Great Lakes/OH Valley, with the western portion of the boundary becoming oriented west-east across the central Great Plains. ....Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid South... Scattered showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of KY/TN during the early morning in association with a 500-mb speed max moving through the region. It remains uncertain the spatial delineation of convective overturning and its impact on subsequent destabilization---mainly for areas to its north over parts of the OH Valley during the afternoon. Nonetheless, moist low levels will destabilize where cloud breaks occur ahead of a southeastward-moving front. Forecast hodographs indicate organized storms given adequate destabilization occurs. The stronger storms will be capable of isolated severe gusts and scattered wind damage in addition to the possibility of large hail with any supercells. Storm coverage will probably be greatest over the OH Valley with convergence limiting coverage over the MS Valley into the Ozarks. ....Carolinas... Strong heating of a moist airmass ahead of a lead disturbance will promote a destabilizing boundary layer and moderate to strong buoyancy by early afternoon. A weak cap and weak forcing for ascent will lead to scattered storms by mid-late afternoon. Damaging gusts with the more organized multicells will be the primary concern, especially if a belt of stronger 2-4 km flow (30-40 kt) is realized---as depicted by some model guidance. This activity will likely wane during the evening. ....Eastern CO into KS/northern OK... The western portion of a front will likely become draped across eastern CO during the day. Easterly flow will again favor seasonably moist conditions across the CO High Plains with orographic thunderstorm development expected by midday into the early afternoon near the CO Front Range. Storms are forecast to move east of the higher terrain during the early-mid afternoon and intensify. Models show elongated hodographs which will be favorable for organized storms, including supercells early in the convective life cycle. Additional storms and increasing storm coverage will favor a cluster/MCS to develop and potentially track eastward near the boundary across southwest KS during the evening with a wind threat perhaps continuing into the late night near the OK-KS border. ...Smith.. 07/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .