Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1625
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 04:42:01

ACUS11 KWNS 190441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190441=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into southern Illinois...western
Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 190441Z - 190645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to persist through the early
morning hours, and some may produce damaging hail.

DISCUSSION...Southwest winds of 20-25 kt at 850 mb are aiding
theta-e advection into the region, in the wake of the earlier MCSs.
Storms have already formed over the MO/IL/KY border area, with signs
of incipient development to the northwest into central/eastern MO.
Although the storms are elevated in nature, substantial instability
is present to support strong updrafts, and shear is favorable in the
cloud-bearing layer due to 50 kt mid and high-level winds. As such,
at least isolated severe storms capable of hail are anticipated,
from MO into TN, for a several hour period. If too many storms form
in this zone, storm mode could conceivably interfere destructively=20
and reduce hail potential.

...Jewell/Edwards.. 07/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8UwULPAY4OPths4Wl_T8AJYu37kYLBhp69aG3ddgc794vsm21llny0dCu7GUMO7e3YSTS9m0r=
JWgddAmvjSSE5VlcE8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36578914 37228998 37819085 38139135 38339201 38599228
            38799228 39019218 39059134 38848975 38538884 37948785
            37458717 37148693 36578681 36178684 35888714 35828747
            36128840 36228857 36578914=20


=3D =3D =3D
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