Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 19 2023 01:03:31 ACUS01 KWNS 190103 SWODY1 SPC AC 190101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS...MISSOURI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Damaging winds will remain possible in northeastern Mississippi and northern Alabama for a few more hours. Large to very large hail from central South Dakota into eastern North Dakota. Later tonight, large to very large hail and perhaps damaging winds are possible across parts of Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley. ....Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough continues across the Dakotas this evening. Convection in the northern Plains has developed along the eastward-moving cold front. A strong MCV also continues in the Mid-South with two stronger linear segments moving through northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. ....Mid-South... The two remaining strong to severe linear segments in northern Alabama/Mississippi may continue to pose a threat for strong/severe damaging winds for a couple more hours. This potential will likely be maximized with the western-most complex as it still remains somewhat west of outflow generated from an MCS earlier today. With time, increasing interaction with that outflow should tend to diminish the potential for strong/damaging winds. ....Dakotas... A cluster of supercells within central South Dakota produced hail of 2-3 inches late this afternoon. These storms have since begun to interact with one another. Large to very large hail will be possible in the short term; however, strong/severe wind gusts may become more common as cold pool mergers continue. Farther norther, more isolated convection has develop in central North Dakota along the front. Storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but an additional storm or two is possible. Steep lapse rates and strong shear on the 00Z BIS sounding should promote organized supercells capable of large/very large hail and severe wind gusts. With more stable air just to the east of these storms, the eastward progression is also uncertain. ....Missouri into Lower Ohio Valley... The low-level jet will increase this evening from the southwest. This will promote elevated convection near a composite front/outflow boundary later this evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates are present on the observed TOP/SGF soundings this evening and, with strong effective shear, should promote organized storms within the warm advection regime. Large to potentially very large hail will likely be the primary threat. As storm coverage increases, there may be enough upscale growth to support some increase in strong/damaging wind potential, despite some low-level stabilization. ...Wendt.. 07/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .