Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1619
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 20:47:29

ACUS11 KWNS 182047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182047=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-182245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Southern Ohio...Eastern Kentucky...Northern West
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182047Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon.  Present indications are that severe threat may remain
relatively disorganized and may not require a WW.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows scattered thunderstorms
slowly intensifying over portions of southern Ohio and eastern
Kentucky.  This development is occurring in a region of a warm/humid
air mass with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values currently
ranging from 2500-3000 J/kg.  Moderately strong winds aloft are also
present in this region, with sufficient effective shear for
organized multicell or transient supercell structures.  Despite the
rather favorable environment, storms in eastern KY have been slow to
become intense with no ground truth reports of wind damage so far.=20
Given weak forcing, it is unclear whether sufficient coverage of
severe activity will warrant a watch.  Trends will be closely
monitored.

...Hart/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8TgEymzdF1pdvuNd_xkKufz3gF5n_o9V41twyb3EKc6Ub5sVRjnky0AM-kcd9NVj_izlJxPbt=
REctqhX_2UtlB881Do$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38248517 39268413 39928173 39658034 38168151 37288376
            38248517=20


=3D =3D =3D
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