Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1616
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 17:48:56

ACUS11 KWNS 181748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181748=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western KY and Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 181748Z - 181845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for
parts of the area in the next hour. An organized MCS with severe
winds is approaching from the west.

DISCUSSION...An organized bowing MCS is tracking eastward across the
lower OH River Valley at around 50 kt this afternoon -- with a
recent measured gust of 66 mph in far southeastern MO. The MCS is
moving into an increasingly unstable pre-convective environment with
around 40 kt of west-northwesterly deep-layer shear oriented
perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front. This should support
its maintenance downstream into southwestern KY and Middle TN this
afternoon -- with a corresponding risk of severe winds up to 75 mph.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for parts of the
area in the next hour.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7sCv-UCjWFsdnXQUIZJNR_63JZYGNIvSFCgggDnkkGqUEbx8DhVxnqAiwxI4JouXJNEeRc0hP=
Xunv9nbmi0SYtYzZUg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37148818 37508813 37708805 37938785 37948755 37888704
            37728635 37438571 37068520 36458527 35668561 35388582
            35178607 35208680 35288751 35488796 35808814 36848820
            37148818=20


=3D =3D =3D
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