Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1615
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 17:24:25

ACUS11 KWNS 181724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181723=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Southern IL...southeastern MO...southwestern
KY...and far northwestern TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 181723Z - 181900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat continues with an
east-southeastward-moving MCS/bowing complex this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPAH shows a well-organized
MCS/bowing complex tracking east-southeastward at around 50 kt over
the lower OH River Valley this afternoon. This activity is
associated with an expanding trailing stratiform region and a
low/mid-level rear-inflow jet with speeds near 80 kt (per KPAH
radar). Ahead of the MCS, filtered heating beneath a cirrus canopy
continues to destabilize inflow for the system given upper 70s/lower
80s dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. The
increasingly strong surface-based instability, coupled with around
40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge
gust front (per regional VWP), should support the maintenance or
perhaps strengthening of the MCS. As a result, severe gusts up to 75
mph are possible as it continues east-southeastward this afternoon.

...Weinman.. 07/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-TmkPBB1CjNT6QLS18EDG50pSdSXFdjg8mqBC4paNyIkv6RYoPSy54YM9uhud6W0iU1zjppA4=
VSqB6zXekM028z7RDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37238967 37088979 36988997 36849003 36688997 36538973
            36408939 36328905 36308875 36288849 36408823 36728801
            37168793 37578794 37868815 37958842 37998877 38028910
            38038936 38018953 37878963 37528953 37238967=20


=3D =3D =3D
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