Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1614
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 16:12:26

ACUS11 KWNS 181612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181611=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-181815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New York...Northern and Western New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181611Z - 181815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms are
expected this afternoon.  It is unclear if coverage of storms will
warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across eastern NY and much of New England, where dewpoints are in
the mid-upper 60s.  This warm/humid air mass will yield afternoon
MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and rather steep low-level lapse
rates.  A shortwave trough over western PA will provide large scale
forcing for ascent across the region, leading to widely scattered
thunderstorm development.  Forecast soundings show that the strength
of the winds aloft and thermodynamic parameters look favorable for a
risk of damaging winds in the stronger storms that can form.=20
However, most recent CAM solutions suggest that coverage of storms
will be somewhat limited.  Satellite/radar trends will be monitored
through the early afternoon, with a severe thunderstorm watch
issuance possible.

...Hart/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-T__SeZTveY_LbAtd29p_Hc5QCPyIrE3kr5HZOISoymm6fk2sPoBw2OQenjRAu_wafIlzCcSc=
3gEpg1q35EDpWUDun0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44457596 45107485 45057154 45797051 46996982 47256898
            44836951 42907221 41597370 42327525 42737772 44457596=20


=3D =3D =3D
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