Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1613
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 15:42:56

ACUS11 KWNS 181542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181542=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 181542Z - 181715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...A fast-moving bowing MCS will continue to track across
southeast MO through 18z.  Damaging wind gusts remain the primary
risk.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar loops continue to show a bowing MCS
tracking southeastward across east-central MO at around 40 knots.=20
Trends suggest the line has weakened slightly in the last hour, with
no recent ground truth reports of wind damage.=20=20

The air mass downstream of the MCS is heating up, and is
characterized by dewpoints in the mid 70s. MLCAPE values of
3000-4000 J/kg, steep low/mid-level lapse rates, and strong
northwest flow aloft all indicate re-intensification will likely
occur in the next couple of hours with a renewed risk of damaging
winds and hail.

...Hart.. 07/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8JdDHDCCUqSKn_NkRTUCE9vjFOkhNcQdgFSFQTI0anMwCtZPGlImFhjJPpaOTBqvJSKNljO0A=
8f5Yvx9PyA5F06VmKs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38279060 37838939 36828917 36489053 37229152 37799106
            38279060=20


=3D =3D =3D
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