Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 07:31:53 ACUS03 KWNS 180731 SWODY3 SPC AC 180730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY...AND CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday for the central High Plains, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Carolinas. ....Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will reside across the southern part of the CONUS. A pronounced mid-level trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Appalachians during the Day 3 period. A belt of moderate west-northwest flow will extend from the central Rockies through the MS Valley and into the Carolinas. A cold front will push east across the Great Lakes/OH Valley, with the western portion of the boundary becoming oriented west-east across the central Great Plains. ....Great Lakes/OH Valley... A moisture reservoir over the lower OH Valley will advect northeast during the day ahead of the front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning across parts of this region complicating the amount/spatial extent of a strongly unstable airmass. Nonetheless, strengthening mid to high level flow will overspread the moist sector during peak heating. Organized thunderstorms, including multicellular clusters and supercells, will likely develop during the afternoon along and ahead of the boundary. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail appear to be the primary threats with the stronger storms. ....Carolinas... A very moist airmass is progged by model guidance across the coastal plain/piedmont. Strong heating ahead of a possible lead disturbance will promote a destabilizing boundary layer and scattered storms by mid-late afternoon. Damaging gusts with the more organized multicells will be the primary concern. This activity will likely wane during the evening. ....Eastern CO into KS/northern OK... The western portion of a front will likely become draped across eastern CO during the day. Easterly flow will again favor seasonably moist conditions across the CO High Plains with orographic thunderstorm development expected by early-mid afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos. Models show elongated hodographs which will be favorable for organized storms, including supercells early in the convective life cycle. Additional storms and increasing storm coverage will favor a cluster/MCS to develop and potentially track eastward near the boundary across southwest KS during the evening with a wind threat perhaps continuing into the overnight. ...Smith.. 07/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .