Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 06:03:24 ACUS02 KWNS 180603 SWODY2 SPC AC 180601 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the south-central High Plains. Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible over North Carolina into Virginia. ....Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains. A mid-level low initially near the ND/Canada border will move east-southeast into the Upper Great Lakes while a speed max moves from the Dakotas to Lower MI. A belt of modest to moderately strong west-northwest flow will extend from the central High Plains through the southern Appalachians with weak vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. In the low levels, a weak cold front will push east across portions of the Upper Midwest and southward into portions of the central Great Plains. ....Upper Midwest into the lower MO Valley and south-central High Plains... Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible over the Upper MS Valley Wednesday morning. Renewed convective development is forecast by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley and farther east near a wind shift/front from MN/WI southwestward into NE. Models continue to vary some in moisture quality over the Upper MS Valley, but it seems likely a reservoir of richer moisture will be confined to NE/KS with 60s to lower 70s dewpoints. Model spread continues to be large but at least isolated strong/severe storms seem possible from eastern parts of MN into WI, and perhaps in a separate regime near the mid-level low near the Red River. Farther southwest, low-level easterly flow will maintain a moist fetch into eastern CO where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to spread from the Sangre de Cristos eastward into the plains during the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will favor strong to severe gusts with the stronger multicells. Other thunderstorm activity is possible over eastern NE and eventually into northern KS during the late afternoon and evening with an attendant hail/wind risk. ....VA/NC... A weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest the Appalachians and move into the Piedmont by early afternoon Wednesday. A moist/destabilizing boundary layer will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Weak to modest low to mid tropospheric flow (10-25 kt) will favor west to east storm motions. The stronger cores will be potentially capable of gusts generally in the 45-60 mph range and a wind-damage threat. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening as it moves to the coast. ....KY/TN into AL/GA... Scattered showers/elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in association with a weak disturbance forecast over KY/TN Wednesday morning. Considerable uncertainty is evident in model solutions regarding the potential redevelopment of isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of early day outflow. A moist and moderately unstable airmass by early afternoon could aid in a localized wind-damage threat if a cluster of storms can evolve. Large uncertainty precludes 5-percent wind probabilities this outlook update. ...Smith.. 07/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .