Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1608
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 18 2023 01:38:20

ACUS11 KWNS 180138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180138=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-180345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1608
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Far eastern Wyoming...Black Hills
Vicinity...western and north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...

Valid 180138Z - 180345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue in the High Plains.
Upscale growth is possible as the low-level jet increases. Large
hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. Very large hail
could occur with discrete storms.

DISCUSSION...Two primary clusters of convection are ongoing in far
eastern Wyoming into adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska.
Though convective intensity has been a bit muted thus far, likely
due to limited moisture, large hail has been reported with the
activity moving into the Black Hills region. The observed 00Z RAP
and LBF soundings did show stout capping. Deep-layer shear and
mid-level lapse rates were favorable for severe storms, however.
Low-level moisture does improve, particularly in the Nebraska
Panhandle. It is possible some uptick in intensity may occur. There
is a small window where a discrete storm could intensify and produce
large/very large hail. The more probable scenario at this point is
for the southeasterly low-level jet to increase over the next few
hours--which has begun given recent VAD data--and promote additional
storm development and eventual upscale growth. At that time, severe
wind gusts, perhaps in excess of 75 mph, would become more probable.

...Wendt.. 07/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-V7LkkqU5KuHIzhFG-YVsbNL0snyheCMZOLh7Z4MC7ZsDNTQ_d6gYP0OCb1m7S8oVbAyqeNwl=
uiKUo1zgG6wX-ivUhc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43920514 44730482 44740279 43670109 43480028 42569996
            41780045 41400169 41500264 41940373 42400426 43920514=20


=3D =3D =3D
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