Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1605
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 23:19:49

ACUS11 KWNS 172319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172319=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Kansas into northwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506...

Valid 172319Z - 180045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506
continues.

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and significant severe gusts will
remain possible with an intense supercell in south-central Kansas.
Convective trends suggest this storm will impact parts of northwest
Oklahoma within the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell continues east-southeast of Dodge
City. Hail of 2.5-3 inches has recently been reported with this
storm. Given the strength of the mesocyclone/rear-flank downdraft on
KDDC velocity data, significant severe wind gusts are also possible.
Radar imagery over the last hour has generally suggested that the
rear-flank gust front has remained out ahead of this storm. There
are surface southeasterly winds on the eastern flank of this storm
per ASOS/OK Mesonet data. Should this storm be able to pull this
boundary in, a tornado would be possible. Similar to yesterday,
there is some dryness in the low levels noted on short-term forecast
soundings. Convection along the rear-flank gust front has been
developing periodically with this storm and has merged into the main
updraft. This storm will likely maintain intensity as long as this
process continues and the impacts of entrainment can be minimized.
Given current surface observations and objective mesoanalysis this
storm is likely to move south or perhaps just west of south. While
MLCIN is present, it is not overly prohibitive, and there is some
potential for this mature storm to move into the far eastern OK/TX
Panhandles. Trends will be monitored. Development farther east of
this storm is not certain given the effects of anvil cloud cover and
otherwise nebulous convergence in the surface wind field.

...Wendt.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5HWWFQCXpoczMARdObVjB0oM19x6MjIDGsMykKt_I42OP4Zz2RtSP1CUli_ZhHaNeon5O5Z5H=
tSwyY3eVIp4cpp-nog$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36019974 36160018 36730029 37839988 37899959 37749902
            37479812 37239777 36499773 35979869 36019974=20


=3D =3D =3D
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