Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1604
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 22:48:17

ACUS11 KWNS 172248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172248=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern/central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 172248Z - 172345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is increasing in central/eastern Wyoming.
Storms may initially be supercellular with a threat for large/very
large hail and severe wind gusts. Severe winds (some 75+ mph) will
become more probable as storms grow upscale. A watch is likely for
parts of the central/northern High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Convection within central/eastern Wyoming has continued
to deepen over the last hour. The strongest ascent from a shortwave
trough moving through Montana will be north of the region, but
sufficient lift for additional convection should extend into Wyoming
as well this evening. Storms will initially be weak given the lack
of low-level moisture. However, coverage and intensity will increase
as storms move into the High Plains where post-frontal southeasterly
winds are maintaining moist trajectories into the terrain. CAM
guidance has generally suggested an increase in coverage would occur
early this evening, but guidance has also performed poorly this
afternoon. Observed convective trends would suggest this process may
occur earlier. Given the strong northwesterly shear and surface
southeasterly winds, initial storms would be supercellular with a
threat for large/very large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level
shear is weak and dewpoint spreads will be moderately high. A
tornado threat would be contingent on a discrete supercell mode
being maintained until the low-level jet increases this evening.
That being said, upscale growth of one or more clusters is expected
to occur relatively quickly and severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph)
would become the primary concerns. While timing is still uncertain,
a severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the
central/northern High Plains.

...Wendt/Edwards.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4V2kbqIjYIFTvXbKBdv6L1MyyFJs0drseTaymFpsO9EBhXwYOubKLS3aZY4pNVa-x8MoLxo0_=
Rnp7UnQnWzxysyP6Iw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43870709 44100774 44530787 44860763 45090731 45500651
            45910563 45880466 45410336 44590200 42890173 41640189
            41320230 41280352 41550422 42150440 42940484 43700627
            43870709=20


=3D =3D =3D
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