Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1603
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 22:40:50

ACUS11 KWNS 172240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172240=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-180015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Northeast KS into central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

Valid 172240Z - 180015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible into early evening,
with a threat of hail and locally damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of an earlier storm cluster that is now
over southern MO and northern AR, storms have continued to redevelop
near a surface boundary draped just south of the I-70 corridor from
extreme northeast KS into central MO, where strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear are in place. With outflow approaching
from the south and southwest impinging on the instability axis, the
zone of potential redevelopment is becoming increasingly narrow, but
an additional supercell or two may redevelop with a threat of large
hail and locally damaging gusts.=20

It is possible that an isolated storm or two may develop as far west
as northeast KS, to the west of WW 504, but with coverage expected
to remain quite isolated in this area, additional watch issuance is
considered unlikely at this time. Local watch expansion may be
considered if any notable development occurs north of WW 504.

...Dean/Edwards.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9pqv6mkyJibo7cuUuEJgJzBDgXGephmyDxxYbnz9eAqgxm-U-B8qEqiK7btgK1FyGuj4HvVV2=
wgeiRE-ktFklarIfVM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39179633 39139451 38859226 38739098 38739072 38589055
            38319058 38159131 38149141 38309309 37799362 37749383
            38039413 38399468 38839578 38869655 39179633=20


=3D =3D =3D
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