Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1600
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 20:33:45

ACUS11 KWNS 172033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172033=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern MO into northern AR and
western TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

Valid 172033Z - 172200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail threat should spread from southern
Missouri into northern Arkansas and perhaps western Tennessee over
the next couple of hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells which developed over south-central
MO earlier this afternoon are beginning to show signs of
merging/interacting with one another. While a threat for large to
very large hail (2+ inches) should continue in the short term, the
severe/damaging wind threat may increase further over the next
couple of hours if a small bowing cluster can become established.
Deep-layer gradually weakens with southward extent into AR and
western TN, but 30-40+ kt of effective bulk shear should still prove
favorable for continued convective organization/maintenance this
afternoon and early evening. A very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE
3000-3500+ J/kg, is present downstream of the ongoing
supercells/clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and 1000-1200
J/kg of DCAPE should will likely aid convective downdrafts reaching
severe levels of 60+ mph as convection spreads south-southeastward
this afternoon. A downstream watch into parts of northern AR and
perhaps western TN will likely be needed to address this increasing
severe hail/wind threat.

...Gleason.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!82pbIJqDa2qnksOC9eV2DyJ8jiuVthWF79WqU798VE9Qxkq662YBQ9WNPTUsr6vpKBMPARrBh=
RcmCJhYgD-MCYWmzII$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37649361 38029263 37999158 37729085 37159018 36428960
            35668936 35029031 35349289 36539328 37649361=20


=3D =3D =3D
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