Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1599
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 20:01:48

ACUS11 KWNS 172001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172001=20
INZ000-ILZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central IN and far east-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172001Z - 172200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk is expected to increase across parts of
central IN during the next few hours. Trends will be monitored for a
possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate a band of modest
low-level confluence along the southern periphery of a baroclinic
zone draped across parts of north-central IN -- where an isolated
thunderstorm is tracking eastward from far east-central IL.
Continued heating amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding
moderate surface-based instability and steepening low-level lapse
rates across the pre-convective environment. This instability,
coupled with effective shear strengthening to around 30 kt, should
support organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into early evening.
Overall storm coverage is uncertain with generally weak large-scale
ascent, though additional storms could develop within the confluence
zone and spread east-southeastward into the increasingly favorable
environment during the next few hours. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-JrpyzJ6jSwqARAku1mG8d501NFmWk2FpP-gmwnsGJJ1f4yG76veeWdCg3L17u-u56wmcviIp=
-WkF1cDW9oiHAWklwM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39828493 39148500 38938512 38828549 38748593 38708673
            38748710 38908748 39098767 39678772 40068765 40358758
            40548744 40568719 40528675 40408594 40348523 40228505
            39828493=20


=3D =3D =3D
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