Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 19:56:08

AWUS01 KWNH 171956
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0754
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...South-Central Missouri into Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171953Z - 180100Z

Summary...Multi-cell cluster of supercells over central Missouri
will track southeast into Arkansas by this evening. Cell mergers
and repeating cells would cause rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr and
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Supercells have developed in northwest flow over
central MO this afternoon. As these shift southeast cell mergers
and some repeating activity can be expected. Hourly rainfall
estimates from KSGF have already reached 2" with this activity
after accounting for hail contamination.

High instability (MLCAPE of 3000+ J/kg), wind shear (0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt), and lift from the left exit region of a NWly
jet streak centered over western IA will allow further
redevelopment. Moisture is only a little above normal with PWs
around 1.6", but the risk for activity to orient with the NWly (as
seen in recent scans from KSGF) leads to extended heavy rain which
should become excessive in at least localized areas into this
evening. Max hourly rainfall should be around 3".

This activity is not handled well in the CAM suite in terms of
timing and location. The area affected by this activity should be
bound on the west by outflow/cold pool from earlier activity over
eastern KS/OK, but the eastern bound is less certain. Upwind
propagation vectors do suggest a southward trend in the
southeastward motion from the mean flow, but the risk for this
activity extending over to the mid-MS river will be monitored
(though that area has higher FFG from being drier in recent days).

Recent rainfall, particularly over south-central MO and farther
west, along with terrain in the Ozarks, makes this area more
susceptible to flash flooding with FFG generally around 2"/hr.
Flash flooding should be limited to where cell mergers and
repeating cells are greatest and is considered possible into this
evening.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!47GhNRP_BWPfrMvW-iU13h4hvkgehM9QS90tY5BlxDJ2GC0Gog_ehtxOLYdaH9MrlQXY=
Pn9Y9O8zxbyQZPui46Cx0zY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38009153 37919111 37619055 37019024 36429022=20
            35829044 35529112 35669259 36429336 36919366=20
            37559361 37889338 37929248=20

=3D =3D =3D
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