Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1596
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 17:53:44

ACUS11 KWNS 171753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171753=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern OH...western WV...and far southwestern
PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171753Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds
and isolated large hail will increase through the afternoon. A watch
is possible for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery indicates a
corridor of deepening convective towers and isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development across southeastern OH, western
WV, and southwestern PA this afternoon. Weakly confluent
boundary-layer winds and continued diurnal heating of a moist air
mass (upper 60s surface dewpoints) should favor additional
thunderstorm development through the afternoon. While modest
midlevel lapse rates may limit initial updraft intensity to an
extent, 30-40 kt southwesterly midlevel winds (per regional VWP)
could favor several loosely organized clusters capable of wind
damage (and isolated hail) -- aided by steepening low-level lapse
rates and water-loading. Coverage and intensity of severe storms is
somewhat unclear, though convective trends will be monitored for a
possible watch across parts of the area this afternoon.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6O35dxqE4bJ-Kky8GdwOplHPsmS_lBxHqfhAVuOl41evQl_NQuEtCIeuNkvj47YWjRv6niWQ5=
KIrSe-sOxkStxw6dFQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON   40398111 40198151 39978185 39748224 39608254 39478298
            39318332 39158337 38878329 38648300 38368256 38218212
            38168170 38278123 38498077 38928024 39537961 40007932
            40287935 40497976 40568019 40558058 40558068 40398111=20


=3D =3D =3D
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