Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1592
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 14:42:44

ACUS11 KWNS 171442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171442=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-171645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern KS into northern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171442Z - 171645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...If thunderstorms can strengthen further this morning, they
would pose a severe hail/wind threat, including isolated very large
hail. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has recently strengthened as
it moves southeastward across KS. Other shallow activity also
appears to be attempting to deepen across central KS based on recent
visible satellite and radar imagery. This convection probably
remains slightly elevated at the moment, with the 12Z observed
soundings from TOP and DDC showing substantial MLCIN present at low
levels. Still, a very moist and strongly unstable airmass is present
across central/southern KS into northern OK, with MUCAPE generally
3000-4000 J/kg. As daytime heating occurs, boundary-layer inhibition
should gradually erode, and there is potential for this convection
to become surface based over the next couple of hours if it can be
sustained.

Modest west-southwesterly flow at low levels veers to northwesterly
and strengthens with height at mid/upper levels, which is supporting
40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear. If convection can strengthen,
supercells would likely be the main convective mode initially. Large
to very large hail and severe downdraft winds would be a concern
given the very strong instability and favorable shear present. The
main uncertainty at this point is whether the ongoing activity will
strengthen/develop further this morning, as large-scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough over the mid MO Valley remains
mostly displaced to the north of the central/southern Plains.
Convective trends will be closely monitored this morning for signs
of increasing thunderstorm coverage/intensity, which may eventually
prompt watch issuance.

...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8w-9qfsqVr0aVQuPvO1ZCbNGW00QLz1t3Sm_pfsbfIfXXZQpV5lFXchYezPbcpZ7T3y9r9COR=
KGIEhVrv3T4QBP3Ikk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38579687 38089595 37439530 37069510 36619525 36439609
            36519762 36989847 37969897 38569881 38419779 38579687=20


=3D =3D =3D
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