Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 08:54:10 ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SWOD48 SPC AC 170852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday to the Northeast by Saturday. On Thursday and Friday, a moist airmass is forecast ahead of the trough, where scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon and evening. A chance for severe storms could occur from lower Michigan southward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Although the models suggest that moderate instability could develop in some areas ahead of the trough each day, deep-layer shear is forecast to be marginal for supercells. For this reason, multicells are expected to be the main storm mode. A few could produce wind damage and hail. Further to the west across the central High Plains, an axis of instability is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and western Kansas on Thursday afternoon. Storms that form along or near this axis of instability could have an isolated severe threat. ....Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig quickly southeastward into the central U.S., and become more amplified in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. Although thunderstorms will likely form near and ahead of the trough each afternoon, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak across most of the moist sector. For this reason, any severe threat associated with the trough is expected to remain marginal. ...Broyles.. 07/17/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .