Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 17 2023 00:58:39

ACUS01 KWNS 170058
SWODY1
SPC AC 170056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central
and southern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours.

....01z Update...

Severe probabilities have been removed from the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast vicinity as well as the central Gulf Coast
states. While gusty winds will possible with thunderstorms into this
evening, the overall severe risk has largely diminished across these
areas.

Severe probabilities will remain confined to portions of the
central/southern Plains from Nebraska into northern Oklahoma.
Isolated cells in Nebraska will continue to pose a risk for large
hail and locally damaging gusts another few hours before diminishing
by around 04z. Further south, an intense supercell continued across
south-central KS this evening, with additional thunderstorm
development noted across central KS. This activity may persist for
several more hours as convection moves south into northern OK. The
00z RAOB from OUN indicated a favorable environment which would
support severe thunderstorms (strong instability, effective shear
around 40 kt, elongated hodograph) if convection can be maintained.
Eventually, strengthening inhibition may prove hostile toward
ongoing storms given the lack of a stronger low-level jet.
Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk of large to very large
hail and damaging gusts will persist into the early overnight
period.

...Leitman.. 07/17/2023

$$

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