Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1586
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 23:42:37

ACUS11 KWNS 162342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162342=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-170115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern LA/MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...

Valid 162342Z - 170115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized damaging-wind threat may persist into mid
evening, though a gradual weakening trend is expected to continue.
Local watch expansion may be considered, depending on short-term
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing this evening across
southwest MS and adjacent parts of LA. While the MCV and cold pool
related to the long-lived MCS continue to move east-southeastward,
the earlier bowing segment that produced severe gusts across
northern LA has largely weakened, as favorable downstream buoyancy
has become constricted by outflow moving north from southeast LA.
The remaining threat is likely restricted to parts of southwest MS,
to the north of the southern outflow, and east of the advancing cold
pool. A secondary threat may evolve along the southwest flank across
southwest/south-central LA, as the trailing outflow moves into a
very moist and unstable environment. However, with rather weak
deep-layer shear and a shrinking reservoir of instability, any
remaining threat is likely to be rather isolated.=20

Given the ongoing trends described above, new watch issuance is
unlikely, but local watch expansion may be considered if it appears
that some threat will spread east and/or south of WW 501 over the
next 1-2 hours.

...Dean.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_lHvzyEwOfyXLDadeA-npYYPGnxAtSHvFAZQzSbgg-hSO_bpiQihNEojIS2bESlNmAQXFJG_N=
87eX37qNuA1Pca2foA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30959316 31089182 31359108 31619119 31939127 32459116
            32609055 32509013 32218982 31749012 31289045 30439122
            29939219 30359365 30959316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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