Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1583
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 22:20:09

ACUS11 KWNS 162220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162219=20
KSZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 162219Z - 170015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...A supercell capable of large/very large hail and severe
wind gusts will likely continue to the south/southwest in central
Kansas. Additional development is possible in west-central Kansas.
Later this evening, the low-level jet could promote storm
development in east-central/southeastern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A large supercell in central Kansas near I-70 has
produced hail of 1.25-3 inches in the last hour or so. Measured
severe wind gusts have also been observed along the western flank of
the storm (recently 70 mph in Russell). Current observational trends
in central Kansas show a pocket of dry/well-mixed air in the
vicinity of Wichita. Greater moisture exists along an axis from
Great Bend to Pratt. It is likely that this supercell will continue
to track south to perhaps a bit southwest this afternoon. Strong
effective shear and buoyancy will continue to support a threat for
large/very large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional convection
has attempted to develop and mature farther west along the outflow
boundary. Should that occur some upscale growth is possible and
severe winds would become more probable. Low-level shear is weak per
area VAD profiles, and the tornado threat is generally low as a
result. The exception would be along the outflow into southeastern
Kansas, though storms are not likely to develop there in the near
term.=20

Eastern portions of WW 500 will likely not see much activity in the
short term. With a modest increase in the low-level jet expected
this evening, the outflow boundary will need to be monitored for
convective development. Forecast soundings suggest those potential
storms would pose a similar threat of large hail and severe/damaging
winds.

...Wendt.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5bcj9FayQesWFbEIDdri72JJiROMBU89YOCTlr3HXN3pyGAECKlm9oVrnFYmn7om8UywSEGgP=
E6lfc4Mwm38d0i1ssM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38469965 38999919 39179876 39249842 39259818 39229789
            39099780 37759797 37409800 37119830 37129913 37659982
            38469965=20


=3D =3D =3D
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