Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1582
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 21:00:34

ACUS11 KWNS 162100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162100=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Far southeastern MO and southern IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

Valid 162100Z - 162230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 499 this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for
a possible downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KLSX depicts a broken line of
thunderstorms tracking eastward across parts of southeastern MO into
southwestern IL this afternoon -- where several wind-damage reports
and measured severe gusts have occurred. In the short-term, severe
winds and sporadic large hail will remain possible with this
activity -- aided by a unidirectional westerly wind profile
characterized by 30 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear (per KLSX VWP data)
oriented perpendicular to the larger outflow boundary.=20

As these storms continue east out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499,
it is unclear if storms will maintain intensity (especially along
the southern parts of the broken line) where deep-layer shear is
weaker. However, steep low-level lapse rates and favorable
deep-layer shear downstream of the northern part of the line may
continue to support organized clusters capable of wind damage.
Convective trends are being monitored for a downstream watch.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6gSh4EBWqX4H5nOd9mifyGnfhv9VMhEiyL63L-kezwUxqq0mTAlh-xYJ6ctVgsozRmQgklx6I=
8NgdtOumKyLhU4zPIs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37729068 38069060 39188979 39518950 39638910 39648851
            39538797 39228770 38788776 38428795 37938827 37518874
            37358910 37278950 37239018 37349051 37549068 37729068=20


=3D =3D =3D
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