Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1580
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 20:32:05

ACUS11 KWNS 162032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162031=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western SD into far northwestern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162031Z - 162300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
with any storms that can develop across the area this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
boundary-layer cumulus generally focused over the Black Hills and a
NW/SE-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone over southwestern SD this
afternoon. Modified RAP forecast soundings over this area depict an
uncapped air mass, characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates atop
moist northeasterly low-level flow. Continued heating over the
higher terrain and along the confluence zone may support isolated
thunderstorm development during the next couple of hours, though
storm coverage is uncertain given weak large-scale ascent over the
area.=20

If storms can develop, a long/straight hodograph (50-60 kt of
effective shear) would support splitting supercells capable of
producing large hail and locally severe gusts. Additionally, a
back-door cold front will approach the area during the next few
hours, which may also support an uptick in thunderstorms though the
evening. While a watch is not currently expected given uncertainty
on storm development/coverage, trends will be monitored.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-CssFxI09_N_ASHlo-4xdgyKukxmoDQLKyKStjkA_PD_CVcQJ1U46YrJ5ZL8qB8VVmG3LXGer=
ok1sT7dvpVUBPaumy8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42720350 42980373 43250389 43550399 43860401 44170402
            44440401 44740397 44930377 45000343 44820296 44420227
            43870163 43400133 43010140 42590189 42420233 42390281
            42550324 42720350=20


=3D =3D =3D
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