Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 19:43:53 AWUS01 KWNH 161943 FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-170140- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0749 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Areas affected...New England and Eastern Long Island Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 161941Z - 170140Z SUMMARY...Further rounds of heavy showers thunderstorms will continue to spread up from eastern Long Island through New England, with an eastward drift, into this evening. Considerable flash flooding is expected to continue in southeast New England while new areas farther east in Maine begin to see flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Regional radar and recent satellite indicates areas of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to lift north-northeast from off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Maine. At 1930Z, impulses driving two main areas of heavy rain are entering central Maine and one over the eastern Long Island Sound approaching southeast New England. This energy is interacting with a plume of deep tropical moisture and instability surging up the coastal Northeast. The 18Z raob from KGYX has 2.06" PW with the 00Z raob likely to approach all time record high PW of around 2.2" per the SPC raob climo given 2.2" to 2.4" PWs are spreading up the New England coast per recent RAP runs and GPS sensors in CT and Maine. Coinciding this axis of strong moisture is sufficiently unstable air with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg over southern New England and Down East Maine. Interior sections of Maine have less than 500 J/kg per the RAP and have generally seen rainfall rates decrease as they push north. However, the MCV moving into central Maine has maintained rain rates of 1"/hr or more. Bulk shear values remain 30 to 40 kt supporting continued growth. The southern MCV looks to bring further heavy rain with rates locally up to 2"/hr over southeast New England areas already hit this afternoon such as Providence and Boston. Further considerable and damaging flash flooding should be anticipated here. Given the combination of high rainfall rates, cell-training, locally wet antecedent conditions and areas of rugged terrain, there is an elevated threat of continued considerable flash flooding into the evening, even as activity drifts east. Jackson ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_g-7-A7_V14FOItbau6uEpldJGABh5J2sb-0inYzLFyuLgXfikkFEecG0bD3VDvsncBs= nh9gwpk7woJ-L_BUEmzUBGc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...CAR...GYX...OKX... ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 46706782 46226770 45446746 45046751 44566779=20 43916848 43416961 42297014 41987032 41647040=20 41427059 41077110 40557332 41617264 42787178=20 43867101 44917032 46456871=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .