Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1579
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 19:05:32

ACUS11 KWNS 161905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161905=20
KSZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161905Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk may increase across parts of the
area through the afternoon. Convective and environmental trends are
being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite imagery
indicated a WNW/ESE-oriented remnant outflow boundary draped across
parts of central KS this afternoon -- where a pocket of deepening
boundary-layer cumulus is developing. Steep midlevel lapse rates
accompanying an EML plume across the area, coupled with diurnal
destabilization, will yield moderate surface-based instability.
Given weak large-scale ascent and lingering inhibition at the base
of the EML, thunderstorm coverage may be limited across the area.
However, any storms that can mature in the vicinity of the remnant
outflow boundary could pose a risk of isolated large hail and
locally damaging gusts given an elongating/straight hodograph (40-50
kt of effective shear).=20

It is unclear if a watch will be needed this afternoon, though the
severe risk should increase further this evening as isentropic
ascent atop the remnant outflow boundary gradually strengthens.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9pS90nYhWSBQxGqcIJ7AN8IwzjRWB3bQos7JW6qui7oQ79zOWEJcTzD8CYsklJdEZ__HPdTEW=
VWBB-SYuX42FdwMVBM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39770010 39929976 39939921 39899859 39789768 39639717
            39519678 39269646 38969634 38619627 38209637 37989665
            37929706 37879951 38080005 38420024 38820035 39270033
            39770010=20


=3D =3D =3D
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