Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 17:49:21 AWUS01 KWNH 161749 FFGMPD MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-162348- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0748 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 148 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Areas affected...Northeast PA...Far Northwest NJ...Eastern NY...Much of VT Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 161748Z - 162348Z SUMMARY...A gradual increase shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through the afternoon hours. Highly sensitive soil conditions and elevated streamflows from recent rainfall will promote scattered instances of additional flash flooding this afternoon. DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field in close proximity to a stationary front draped up across areas of northeast PA through eastern NY and into northern VT. Many of these areas have seen a fair amount of solar insolation through the morning and midday time frame and this has resulted in a destabilization of the boundary layer with MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Multiple waves of low pressure are noted in the latest surface analysis riding up along the front, and this will be instrumental in favoring pockets of locally stronger frontal convergence going through the afternoon hours. This coupled with the improving thermodynamic environment and localized orographics/upslope flow regime that is in place over the region should favor an expansion of shower and thunderstorm activity. The airmass is very moist over these areas with PWs as much as 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of the year and reflective of the surge of deep tropical moisture that is currently impacting much of the broader Northeast U.S. Over the next several hours, relatively slow-moving areas of showers and thunderstorms focusing near and east of the aforementioned front will be capable of producing rainfall rates of as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour. Some additional localized storm total amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible. These additional rains will be falling over areas that are very sensitive to additional rain given the very heavy rainfall totals seen locally over the last week. Between saturated soil conditions and elevated streamflows, these additional rains this afternoon are likely to result in at least scattered instances of additional flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7LzQh2q4oH_TtXUoedisadLCz0kc_Y9loOCmeleKAuRQOyvjo57HaneGHKSxn50kHNFO= P1wLLoL9BjkqSqHvXfW_4Sc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 45137249 44937173 43487257 42197335 41497391=20 40777451 40617532 40877579 41697592 42707541=20 43497455 44537382 44947345=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .