Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 16:21:21

AWUS01 KWNH 161621
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162220-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0747
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Red River Valley of the South
into the Lower MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161620Z - 162220Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
portions of the Red River Valley of the South and gradually drop
southeastward this afternoon into areas of the Lower MS Valley.
Some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows a strong MCS
impacting areas of the Red River Valley of the South as
shortwave/vort energy embedded within strong northwest mid-level
flow aloft drops down across the southern Plains. This energy
which is traversing a strong instability gradient and interacting
with a well-defined frontal zone will likely continue to favor an
organized convective threat heading through the afternoon hours.

MLCAPE values downstream over areas of northeast TX and northern
LA are on the order of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg, with high PWs of 2.0 to
2.25 inches. This strongly favorable thermodynamic environment and
depth of moisture coupled with convergent flow along the front
should yield sustainable convection with heavy rainfall rates that
will be capable of reaching 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger
cells. Already portions of southeast OK have seen this as
indicated by MRMS data over the last 1 to 2 hours.

The latest 12Z HREF guidance supports a gradual southeast
propagation of the MCS activity down across northeast TX and
eventually large areas of northwest to south-central LA heading
through the late-afternoon hours. Additional areas of convection
may develop with the diurnal heating cycle out ahead of the main
convective complex, especially over areas of south-central LA by
later this afternoon which will introduce some concerns eventually
for some cell-mergers. Some occasional instances of cell-training
will be possible too, and with the locally extreme rainfall rates,
some storm total amounts may reach as high as 3 to 5 inches.

Some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible as a result going through the afternoon hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5Kzh9w9us5-Y6FNWwpgU8ixKFlRz7xXARJksOjMPLHN-TyNwddaV48GwJVwgiD8WGMU3=
XDYpcKWwMEyoWCzrIJYR3Pk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LCH...LIX...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34139535 34009454 33469358 32499225 31109097=20
            30468984 29718984 29569071 30169259 31019362=20
            32059505 32869632 33429644 34019604=20

=3D =3D =3D
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