Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1573
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 11:07:32

ACUS11 KWNS 161107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161107=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-161330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...southeastern New York state...Connecticut...western
and central Massachusetts...southeastern Vermont and southern New
Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161107Z - 161330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms spreading north-northeastward
across the region through midday may be accompanied by a gradually
increasing risk for brief tornadoes.  Trends are being monitored for
the possibility of a tornado watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Near/east of modest deep-layer troughing overspreading
the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region,
strengthening of southerly wind fields in the 850-700 mb layer is
ongoing (20-40 kt) near northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas into New
England.  Coupled with some backing with time near the surface, and
veering with time a bit farther aloft, model forecast soundings
indicate that this will contribute to modestly enlarging,
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs into the midday hours.

At the same time, breaks or thin spots in the overcast may allow for
some insolation and warming of the boundary-layer, though
lapse-rates through lower and mid-levels will remain weak.  Even so,
the seasonably high boundary-layer moisture (including lower/mid 70s
F surface dew points) already present across much of the region will
compensate, in terms of potential near surface updraft
accelerations.  And this may contribute to an environment conducive
to intensifying convection, with occasionally strengthening embedded
low-level mesocyclones.

Occasional weak circulations have already been noted in convection
overspreading northern New Jersey into the lower Hudson Valley this
morning.  Convection allowing model output, in particular, suggest
this will continue northward and eastward, with potential for brief
tornadoes gradually increasing in a corridor east of the lower
Hudson Valley and Berkshires into southern New Hampshire through
13-16Z.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5-kth-tJ-76TQJyRR_sLLCTkjnh45CR9cLCL6wDxa6JPydEzLPUeBdWP0Dy5bXTmcbc_bRm5X=
_wEqUl4qSVpZihU8C0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42837264 43377163 42907123 41587231 41147332 41077399
            41737361 42347298 42837264=20


=3D =3D =3D
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