Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 08:50:37

ACUS48 KWNS 160850
SWOD48
SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to
move east-southeastward from the northern Plains on Wednesday to the
central Appalachians on Friday. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass will likely be in place. Each day, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of this moist
airmass. A severe threat may develop just ahead of the trough each
day from mid afternoon into the early evening. The severe potential
will likely be maximized in areas that destabilize the most. Current
forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will be adequate for
organized storms, but the models vary widely on the distribution of
instability and convective coverage. The greatest severe threat
could develop in parts of the Northeast on Friday, as the trough
approaches a very moist airmass along the Eastern Seaboard.

....Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move
slowly eastward across southeastern Canada, as an associated trough
approaches the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorm development will be
possible each afternoon within a moist airmass to the east of the
trough. Although a severe threat will be possible in some areas,
model forecasts vary considerably on the distribution of
instability, and confidence is low concerning which areas are likely
to have the greatest severe threat.

...Broyles.. 07/16/2023

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