Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1572
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 07:24:30

ACUS11 KWNS 160724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160723=20
TXZ000-160930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and Big Country

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

Valid 160723Z - 160930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to spread
southeast of the Lubbock, toward the Abilene vicinity, through 5-6
AM CDT.  While occasional strong surface gusts may persist, a new
severe weather watch is not expected to become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Northerly rear inflow into the southeastward
propagating cluster of storms generally appears on the order of 40+
kt, with perhaps pockets approaching 50 kt.  Downward mixing of this
momentum is occasionally contributing to strong surface gusts, but
convection does not appear particularly well organized.  Based on
lightning flash rates and recent cloud top cooling near/northeast of
Plainview, convection is yet to undergo notable weakening.  However,
intensity has remained rather modest, due to inhibition associated
with warm layers aloft and southeasterly updraft inflow generally
characterized by mixed-layer CAPE around or below 1000 J/kg.

It is possible that ongoing convection may generally be maintained
another few hours while approaching the Abilene vicinity through
10-11Z, before more substantive weakening trends commence toward
daybreak.  However, with peak surface gusts expected to mostly
remain near or below severe limits, a new severe weather watch is
not anticipated.

...Kerr.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!52uCVag9SULNm7V2KsU9Kt1oF-uhriyDDSReBBCJdkoJzu38cx5VwHrcBj9cpzydAJ1QKb0t4=
b15BASP2zbwDMjW1mo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34050045 33049930 32179980 32170105 33070194 33450189
            33600101 34050045=20


=3D =3D =3D
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